So, I figured out the problem on my machine. I don't think it's a Visual Studio problem per se.
On my broken machine, I noticed that I had two SDK directories:
C:\Program Files (x86)\Windows Kits
C:\Program Files\Windows Kits
But on my working VM, there was only one:
C:\Program Files (x86)\Windows Kits
On the broken machine: I recalled that I had installed x64 debugging tools, WPT, etc. without using the SDK installer. So, I just kept uninstalling stuff until the C:\Program Files\Windows Kits directory disappeared.
At that point, I installed as follows:
- VS 2022 17.13.7 with Windows Driver Kit enabled.
- SDK 22621
- WDK 22621
At the end of all that, my kernel compile is working again and the C:\Program Files\Windows Kits directory did not reappear.
That sucked. 