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[NTTALK] Ballmer warned that Linux is a cancer. He was right.

Pavel_APavel_A Member Posts: 2,670
edited May 10 in NTDEV

Comments

  • anton_bassovanton_bassov Member Posts: 4,984

    Ballmer warned that Linux is a cancer

    Imagine what it would look like if he did it during his (in)famous "Monkey Boy Episode"

    "I've got four words for you - Linux Is A Cancer. Yeeaahhhhhhhh!!!!!"

    Anton Bassov

  • Peter_Viscarola_(OSR)Peter_Viscarola_(OSR) Administrator Posts: 7,213

    How times have changed, huh?

    “Developers, Developers, Developers. Developers”...

    Peter

    Peter Viscarola
    OSR
    @OSRDrivers

  • anton_bassovanton_bassov Member Posts: 4,984

    “Developers, Developers, Developers. Developers”...

    This one seems to be good....

    Anton Bassov

  • Peter_Viscarola_(OSR)Peter_Viscarola_(OSR) Administrator Posts: 7,213

    Probably the third best thing that’s ever happened in the history of MSFT is Ballmer leaving. Look at the direction of the company since since his departure.

    And the stock price? Can you guess when Ballmer left from the chart below?

    https://walletinvestor.com/static/frontend/forecast-graphs/7b/stock-msft-stock-forecast.png?v=1557145327

    Peter Viscarola
    OSR
    @OSRDrivers

  • Michal_VodickaMichal_Vodicka Member - All Emails Posts: 50
    edited May 12

    That's probably not fair to him, compare with other stocks, they have similar development i.e. it was more the whole market mood than CEO change. Also, the above extrapolation is a bit ridiculous, analysts I follow have target around 75 and expect few years correction which could already start.

  • RourkeRourke Member Posts: 31

    The Ballmer years were a disaster. He never seemed to have anything on managers that didn't become billionaires and that always puzzled me. I remember Ballmer berating chicago developers to speed up delivery. That's win95 to you. It was like a red faced hitler yelling and waving his fists to improve morale. I was there. His management style was a joke yet he went right to the top, more power to him. He's sitting on billions so must have done a few things right. But the company visions always seemed to fail. First new vision was like oh no it's not what operating system or windows running that is important, it's the web brower...let's go off and develop IE to crush netscape. They even parked an 18 wheeler in front of the netscape office on release day depicting IE crushing netscape. Did a picture of that survive? Then the vision was like oh no, it's not the web browser that's important it's the web page people see on their screen...go off and try to crush google...fail. And then oh no it's the phone...anyone remember nokia? In the end the government found it wasn't even necessary to break up that company as they collapsed all by themselves. How surreal it is from such a culture to someone making amazing decisions as Nadella is now.

  • anton_bassovanton_bassov Member Posts: 4,984
    edited May 12

    It was like a red faced hitler yelling and waving his fists to improve

    [Mods: Unacceptably inflammatory content removed. Mr. Bassov usually has higher standards. Godwin’s law proven again.]

    Anton Bassov

    Post edited by Peter_Viscarola_(OSR) on
  • Peter_Viscarola_(OSR)Peter_Viscarola_(OSR) Administrator Posts: 7,213

    compare with other stocks, they have similar development

    No. Since 2010, the Dow is up 135% and MSFT is up 316%.... Check the graphs.

    Nadella is doing a very good job. The company has been radically transformed, both internally and externally. There is little left of the tough-guy bullying that was the hallmark of the Gates and Ballmer years (and, in fairness, which was probably entirely appropriate for the early 90s).

    MSFT has transitions to become a true 21st century company under Nadella.

    Peter

    Peter Viscarola
    OSR
    @OSRDrivers

  • anton_bassovanton_bassov Member Posts: 4,984

    Unacceptably inflammatory content removed.

    Oh, come on - it is just a funny one,don't you think.....

    Mr. Bassov usually has higher standards

    I know these two videos are a bit cheesy ones, but that's all that I managed to find. I saw much better and funnier "variations on the theme"
    few years ago, but, unfortunately, these two seem to be all that is available on YouTube at the moment.....

    Godwin’s law proven again.

    Well, whenever you see a huge audience that is cheering, in its fawning adoration, some hysterical clown who appears to be in a very obvious need of psychiatrist's' intervention, it may well bring certain historical associations and parallels to one's mind ......

    Anton Bassov

  • anton_bassovanton_bassov Member Posts: 4,984

    And the stock price? Can you guess when Ballmer left from the chart below?

    Well, there are two totally unrelated observations to be made here

    1. Correlation does not necessarily imply causation.

    2. In this particular case you got simply mislead by the "optical illusion" - the graph is presented in absolute terms, although any more or less serious analysis requires the relative ones. More on it below

    No. Since 2010, the Dow is up 135% and MSFT is up 316%.... Check the graphs.

    Again, two totally unrelated observations to be made here

    1. For this kind of analysis you have to compare it not to Dow but to the sector index, which, in this particular case (as well as historically), well outperforms Dow.
    2. If you look at the above graph carefully you are going to see that MSFT stock had (roughly) doubled in price from 2012 to early 2014 (i.e. while Mr.Ballmer was still a CEO), and had (roughly) tripled in price in the subsequent 4 years.

    In other words, the difference in price change is far from being as dramatic as a brief glance at the graph may initially suggest...

    Anton Bassov

  • Peter_Viscarola_(OSR)Peter_Viscarola_(OSR) Administrator Posts: 7,213

    it is just a funny one,don't you think

    No, I don’t think.

    the difference in price change is far from being as dramatic as a brief glance at the graph may initially suggest

    I have to admit that you are correct. I like the graph, though... particularly with the cure little “projection” added on the end which might be, ah, a bit “optimistic” as Mr. Vodicka cleverly noted.

    C’mon guys... stop looking so closely. I had a good story going ;-)

    Peter

    Peter Viscarola
    OSR
    @OSRDrivers

  • Michal_VodickaMichal_Vodicka Member - All Emails Posts: 50
    edited May 12

    Mr. Bassov usually has higher standards

    Now you made me really curious ;-)

    Check the graphs.

    This is what I do on daily base. I had to make rest from programming for several years and this is what I did in the meantime. Because it was something totally different, new and interesting (I played with options). I already returned to programming and have to say it is better. You at least create something and don't only play with numbers.

    I have to admit that you are correct.

    It is easier to see on logarithmic chart. This one isn't bad but compare with Boeing, Amazon... even rotten fruit has a good development in last few years.

  • anton_bassovanton_bassov Member Posts: 4,984

    ....... little “projection” added on the end which might be, ah, a bit “optimistic” as Mr. Vodicka cleverly noted.

    Actually, it is not as optimistic as it may seem at the first glance - I've got no idea why Mr.Vodicka find it "ridiculous".....

    Again, one has to look at the whole thing in relative terms. At the risk of sounding like someone who has an unhealthy fixation with the number 7, I have to point out that this projection is a prospect of (roughly) 1/7th (i.e. less than 15%) annual growth of the stock that had a (roughly) sevenfold increase in the last (roughly) seven years. In other words, it indicates that the expected growth potential of the stock in question is almost exhausted. In fact, it looks more of a relatively short stagnation before the deep and decisive nosedive, rather than of a bullish outlook......

    C’mon guys... stop looking so closely. I had a good story going ;-)

    No worries - after all, we are the software engineers and not scientists, right. Therefore, a graph is not really a big deal for us....

    For example, a theory that cannot be either confirmed or decisively refuted by the empirical evidence/data/results of the experiment
    (like, for example, Hugh Everett's interpretation of quantum mechanics) is, from the scientist's perspective, simply unscientific and, hence, is not worth any consideration. Furthermore, in case if the evidence/data/results of the experiment somehow get at odds with the theory in question, the latter has to go, no matter how beautiful it may sound.

    However, from the software engineer's perspective, things may look differently. In the former case we take the philosopher's approach, and start an endless and fruitless argument that is more than likely to result in a flame war and even personal attacks (like, for example, any C++-related discussion on NTDEV - check Mr.Rourke's comments on another thread for the latest example of it ). In the latter one we use
    our "professional know-how" - we simply question the validity of the empirical evidence so that we can proceed with the flame war anyway......

    Anton Bassov

  • Pavel_APavel_A Member Posts: 2,670

    They are good capitalists and know how to make money. It's hard to question the validity of empirical evidence of that))
    I only wonder how fast all this linuxy stuff sneaks into the Windows kernel. Without further colorful medical metaphors.
    From pico-processes in a sort of container to case-sensitivity, then pseudo consoles... and now almost a complete 2nd kernel?

    • pa
  • Michal_VodickaMichal_Vodicka Member - All Emails Posts: 50

    I've got no idea why Mr.Vodicka find it "ridiculous".....
    ...
    In fact, it looks more of a relatively short stagnation before the deep and decisive nosedive, rather than of a bullish outlook......

    I wonder if you read your responses before sending ;-) Actually, I see it the same way and above "to the Moon" extrapolation is typical for topping charts.

  • anton_bassovanton_bassov Member Posts: 4,984

    I wonder if you read your responses before sending ;-)

    Actually, I do. Even more, unlike some other posters, I normally check my earlier posts on the same thread in order to avoid contradicting myself.

    Please look carefully at what you have said before - this is what I was referring to in my post

    [begin quote]

    Also, the above extrapolation is a bit ridiculous, analysts I follow have target around 75 and expect few years correction which could already start.

    [end quote]

    In the quoted post you refer to the upward extrapolation as to " ridiculous one", because that the analysts that you follow expect a deep and long correction. Therefore, you claim that a minor growth that is extrapolated on the chart should not occur before a nosedive - I hope you are not arguing about it,are you.

    Actually, I see it the same way and above "to the Moon" extrapolation is typical for topping charts.

    ...and now you seem to be claiming that the extrapolated minor growth before the nosedive is OK because "it is typical for the topping charts".

    In other words, it seems to be a contradiction between your statements, don't you think.....

    Anton Bassov

  • Michal_VodickaMichal_Vodicka Member - All Emails Posts: 50
    edited May 13

    ...and now you seem to be claiming that the extrapolated minor growth before the nosedive is OK because "it is typical for the topping charts".

    Nope. I haven't said it is OK. I meant it is typical scenario when people extrapolate already topping chart this way and it doesn't occur. You could see it for example when bitcoin was attacking $20k, when gold was around $1800 years before etc. I can be wrong here, of course, nothing is guaranteed in the market. Let's see how it develops.

    Well, I guess we're OT even for NTTALK and I'm not continuing to argue what who has said and hasn't said, sorry ;-)

  • Peter_Viscarola_(OSR)Peter_Viscarola_(OSR) Administrator Posts: 7,213

    only wonder how fast all this linuxy stuff sneaks into the Windows kernel

    Gad! Next thing you know, they'll be adding special file-system functions to query file information without having to open the file first.

    Oh, wait...

    I normally check my earlier posts on the same thread in order to avoid contradicting myself

    *That** made me quite literally LOL.

    Peter

    Peter Viscarola
    OSR
    @OSRDrivers

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